Why Bangladesh seems to falter periodically in political, military, economic, and democratic dimensions.

Overview

Bangladesh, since its independence (1971), has experienced recurring episodes of political turmoil: coups or attempts thereof, disputed elections, military involvement, crises in governance, and social unrest. Periods of relatively stable economic growth alternate with sharp economic shocks (inflation, foreign exchange crises, balance of payments pressures). Meanwhile, the democratic institutions (electoral system, judiciary, civil society) are often weakened or captured, sometimes suppressed.

To understand why these cycles occur, it is necessary to examine multiple interacting spheres. I’ll break them down into political, military, economic, and democratic dimensions, and then show how feedback loops cause destabilisation every few years.

Political Problems

Personalised Politics and Weak Institutionalism

Politics in Bangladesh has long been dominated by personalities and parties rather than robust institutional structures. The two main camps—Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—historically have polarised political life. Leadership transitions, intra-party accountability, and institutional continuity are weak. That means when the leader is challenged (by protests, election disputes, etc.), there’s often no institutional buffer or norm to handle it smoothly.
Elite Capture and Corruption

Political power translates into economic power; elites use state resources to reinforce their political position (jobs, contracts, regulatory capture). Corruption looms large. According to analyses, corruption in banking, regulatory bodies, procurement, trade misinvoicing, etc., weakens legitimacy and drains economic capacity. Al Jazeera+2The Financial Express+2
Factionalism, Weak Opposition, and Electoral Disputes

A recurrent theme is that elections are contested, but often some parties boycott or allege unfairness, voter intimidation, or manipulation of electoral institutions. This results in political legitimacy being questioned, periodic protests, strikes, and sometimes violence. Disputes over the timing of elections, caretaker governments, or interim governments show that the constitutional or legal frameworks are sometimes inadequate or not universally accepted. cms.abclive.in+3The Economic Times+3Asia Society+3
Centralisation of Power

Power tends to become highly centralised in the executive. Oversight institutions (judiciary, audit, and election commission) are often perceived as less independent. Regional and local governance suffers. This centralisation can increase state capacity in some senses (able to push large projects), but also reduces checks, increases corruption, and alienates local actors.
Social Discontent Rising from Inequality and Unmet Expectations

As growth, education, and media penetration increase, citizens expect more in terms of employment, services, justice, and transparency. When these expectations are not met—due to corruption, inefficiency, or policy mismanagement—they lead to protest. Examples: student protests over job quotas. These flashpoints often expose the larger fragility. GIS Reports+2New Age+2

Military Dimension

While Bangladesh has not always had direct military rule (after the early decades), the military and security/intelligence structures have often been involved, or at least influential.

Historical Precedents of Coups and Military Interventions

Since independence, Bangladesh has had numerous coup attempts, periods of martial law or military strong influence. The pattern reinforces the idea that when some elites or the public view civilian politics stutter, the military (or security forces) are seen as possible stabilisers—or even arbiters. cms.abclive.in+1
Politicisation of the Security Apparatus

The intelligence agencies, security forces, and law enforcement tend to become tools in political contestation. E.g., arrests of opposition figures, crackdowns on dissent, and selective application of law depending on political alignment. This reduces trust, increases the stakes of political competition, and can tip crises into violent confrontations. New Age+2The Economic Times+2
Weak Civil-Military Separation

In functioning democracies, civilian oversight of the military and intelligence is apparent. However, in Bangladesh, there have been periods where the military or paramilitary units have assumed quasi-civil functions, been deployed in policing, and sometimes used directly for domestic political ends. This muddies the lines of accountability and increases the risk that political conflicts will spill into military involvement. New Age
External Security / Regional Pressures

Bangladesh is in a region with complex geopolitical dynamics (India, Myanmar, Rohingya refugees, China, etc.). Security concerns (border issues, internal extremism) often give the government pretexts to expand military or intelligence powers, which then become politically entrenched. Also, dependency on external security relationships can sometimes limit domestic democratic reforms.

Economic Dimension

Bangladesh has had impressive economic growth over many years, especially via the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector, remittances, etc. But several chronic vulnerabilities make economic stability fragile.

Export Concentration and External Dependence

The export base is narrow: garments dominate, and Bangladesh is vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand, rising costs, and supply chain disruptions. If demand falls (e.g. in the West) or shipping costs rise, the economy suffers. Similarly, dependence on imported inputs (fuel, raw materials) means exposure to global price shocks. Al Jazeera+1
Foreign Exchange (FX) and Reserve Vulnerabilities

Maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves is always a balancing act. Bangladesh has had periods where reserves dwindle, the taka depreciates, import bills become more expensive, and inflation rises. If reserves are low, the government has less ability to smooth shocks. The Business Standard+3cpd.org.bd+3Al Jazeera+3
Debt Accumulation, Cost Overruns, Poor Revenue Mobilisation

Public debt (both domestic and external) has been rising. Some projects have cost/time overruns. Revenue generation (through taxes, etc.) is often low relative to expenditures and development needs. A big share of public investment (infrastructure, etc.) is financed via borrowing. Debt servicing starts eating up the budget, crowding out other spending. cpd.org.bd+2The Financial Express+2
Inflation and Monetary Policy Issues

Inflation has been recurrent, often driven by currency depreciation, import price rises, supply chain disruptions, and global commodity price spikes. Monetary policy, exchange rate management, and central bank independence sometimes are less robust—sometimes the taka is kept artificially strong, or lending rates are capped, etc., which can lead to distortions. The Business Standard+2Al Jazeera+2
Vulnerability to Climate Disasters and Infrastructure Constraints

Bangladesh is physically vulnerable: it is coastal, low-lying, flood-prone, and subject to cyclones and river erosion. Natural disasters damage agriculture, infrastructure, transport, and homes; disrupt economic activity; and require recurring reconstruction. Also, infrastructure (transport, power, logistics) in many areas is inadequate, delaying or raising the cost of doing business. These raise baseline fragility. Although Bangladesh has made significant efforts to enhance resilience, the costs are high and recurring. observerbd.com+1
Social and Labour Pressures

A large young population, many with rising education or aspirations, but jobs (especially formal, stable jobs) may be insufficient. Unemployment or underemployment among youth is a source of unrest. Also, income inequalities, stagnation of wages (especially for lower classes), and rising cost of living create social discontent that intertwines with political instability. observerbd.com+2Al Jazeera+2

Democratic Dimension

Democratic processes and institutions in Bangladesh have repeatedly been under stress. Periodic democratic backsliding, erosion of norms, suppression of dissent, etc., are part of why crises recur.

Elections Disputes and Legitimacy

Elections are sometimes boycotted by major opposition parties when they allege unfairness. There have been allegations of voter intimidation, rigging, misuse of state apparatus in campaigning, control or influence over the Election Commission, etc. When opposition or a large proportion of the electorate perceives elections to be unfair, legitimacy suffers, and protests ensue. Asia Society+2New Lines Institute+2
Weak Independence of Oversight & Judicial Institutions

The judiciary, the election commission, and the anti-corruption agencies are not always seen as independent. They may come under pressure or influence from ruling parties. This prevents effective checks, allows misuse of power, and creates mistrust. Also, legal and constitutional ambiguities can be exploited. Asia Society+2The Economic Times+2
Suppression of Opposition and Civil Society

There are repeated episodes of crackdowns: arrests, restrictions on media, on protests; suppression of opposition voices. Civil liberties (freedom of assembly, speech) are under pressure. This tends to build grievance, radicalisation, and reduce peaceful channels for dissent. When people feel they can’t act through legal/political means, risks increase. Al Jazeera+2New Age+2
Constitutional Ambiguity, Weak Constitutional Change Mechanisms

Bangladesh’s constitution has had amendments, but sometimes there are gaps – for example, what happens if the Prime Minister resigns, or parliament is dissolved, or elections are delayed. The 2024 constitutional crisis is a case in point. These ambiguities leave space for power struggles and crises. Wikipedia
Public Trust and Social Contract Erosion

The combination of unfulfilled promises, economic hardship, corruption scandals, social inequities, and suppression of dissent diminishes public trust in the government. When trust is low, citizens are more likely to protest, more likely to believe conspiracies, and more ready to mobilise. This erodes democratic legitimacy and often leads to instability.

Feedback Loops & Why the Crises Keep Repeating

The factors above don’t act in isolation; they reinforce each other. Here are some of the loops:

Economic Shock → Social Grievance → Political Instability → Policy Disruption: For instance, inflation or foreign exchange problems push up the cost of living → public protest → government distracted, or heavy-handed → international confidence drops, investment falls → worsening economic performance.
Centralised Power + Weak Oversight → Corruption → Reduced State Capacity: Because power is concentrated, corruption and misuse of authority reduce effective performance, whether in public services, disaster response, or infrastructure maintenance. This reduces legitimacy.
Suppression of Dissent → Radicalisation / Underground Opposition → Harsh Crackdowns: When political or civil channels are blocked, opposition can radicalise or become more confrontational; governments respond with stronger suppression, which in turn provokes more vigorous opposition.
Erosion of Democracy → Questioned Legitimacy → Protests / Regime Change Pressures: Weak democratic legitimacy combined with economic hardship leads to resistance; this can take the form of protests, sometimes of large popular movements which force changes, perhaps abrupt (as in regime ouster or interim government). Once transitions happen, the same structural deficits often haven’t been solved, so after a period, the instability returns.
Military / Security Involvement as ‘Solution’ → Weakening of Civil Institutions: Using the military or security forces to enforce political order may bring short-term stability, but erodes democratic norms/institutions, creating future instability when civilian institutions are weaker.

Recent Example: Monsoon Uprising & Hasina’s Fall (2024)

To illustrate how these play out, consider the 2024 spread crisis:

Public discontent had been building: economic pressures (inflation, foreign exchange, cost of living), corruption allegations, unemployment, especially among youth. GIS Reports+2Al Jazeera+2
A spark came via student protests over job quotas (perceived unfairness). These protests then morphed into broader demands. GIS Reports+1
The government’s response (crackdowns, delayed reforms) plus perceived misuse of security forces and suppression of civil liberties further inflamed tensions. Asia Society+1
There were constitutional ambiguities relevant when Hasina resigned and requested refuge in India, leading to what’s described as a constitutional crisis. Wikipedia+2Asia Society+2
Also, economic buffers had thinned (reserves, foreign exchange), so the capacity to absorb shocks was low. Thus, a moderate issue could tip into a large crisis. The Financial Express+3cpd.org.bd+3Al Jazeera+3

Thus, political, democratic, and economic dimensions converged to generate a crisis that led to Hasina’s exit (temporarily at least), growth in unrest, demand for fundamental reforms, etc.

Why the Crises Are Periodic / Why They “Every Few Years”

Shock Triggers: Global shocks (commodity price spikes, inflation globally, supply chain disruptions, pandemics), natural disasters (floods, cyclones), currency instability—Bangladesh’s exposure means that when there is a shock, the economy often suffers significantly.
Delayed Reforms or Partial Reforms: The government often tries to defer or half-implement difficult reforms (institutional, legal, regulatory). These reforms might threaten entrenched elites. When reforms are too slow or superficial, crises accumulate beneath the surface.
Electoral Cycles: Before primary elections, political competition intensifies, accusations fly, and opposition may mobilise. The stakes rise; governments often try to tighten control in advance; opposition may boycott or push back. This sets up heightened tension that can trigger unrest if elections are seen as unfair.
Youth / Demographic Pressures: As the population grows, more people are educated, more people expect formal employment, stable incomes, and opportunities. If growth slows or sectors like garments hit difficulties, many young people feel left behind. Their potential for protest increases.
Resource Constraints: Even in growth periods, revenue mobilisation is low; public debt and obligations grow, often leaving little margin for error. When reserves fall, or inflows slow (remittances, foreign investment), the margin disappears quickly.
Lack of Trust & Memory of Past

Because institutions are weak, citizens often aren’t confident that the system can respond fairly or that political promises will be kept. When one crisis ends (change of government, protests suppressed, etc.), the underlying grievances are not always addressed. So the next crisis builds on unresolved issues.

Specific Weaknesses & Decision-Failures

To deepen the analysis, here are particular recurring decision-failure areas in Bangladesh:

Exchange Rate Management

Governments sometimes try to keep the Taka artificially stable or delay depreciation to avoid inflation, but that leads to depletion of reserves. When correction is forced, it is more painful. Al Jazeera+2The Business Standard+2
Interest Rates & Credit Policies

Controls or caps on lending, distortions in credit allocation, politically influenced lending or favouring specific sectors, leading to non-performing loans, inefficiencies. China’s success (for example) is partially due to strict oversight; Bangladesh sometimes suffers from weak oversight of banks and corruption in finance. Al Jazeera+2cpd.org.bd+2
Public Investment Projects & Infrastructure

Projects are often ambitious, sometimes showy, but prone to cost overruns, delays, and corruption. This strains the budget and capacity, yet consistently fails to deliver the anticipated gains. It can also lead to public resentment if communities are displaced or if infrastructure quality is low.
Policy Inconsistency

Across administrations or even within administrations, policy reversals, regulatory changes, or ad hoc rules damage confidence among investors and local businesses—for example, rules favouring sure political allies, or reversing decisions when political pressures shift.
Suppressing Dissent Instead of Accommodating It

Governments under pressure often respond with repression: arrests, curtailment of the media, and use of security forces. That might be effective in the short run (quiet), but it tends to generate backlash, international criticism, and further internal discontent. It also prevents peaceful outlets for grievance, increasing the risk of violent or chaotic confrontation.
Poor Disaster Preparedness / Climate Vulnerability

Recurrent floods, cyclones ‒ Bangladesh does reasonably well in mitigation, but the costs are heavy and recovery often strains government resources. When disasters hit, this sometimes exposes the weaknesses in governance, logistics, and corruption, which then feed into public discontent and political opposition.

Counter-Arguments & Successes

It’s not all negative; Bangladesh has had many periods of strong progress, especially economically and socially:

Significant poverty reduction over the decades.
Improvements in health indicators, education, and female literacy.
Growth in garment exports and remittances has been robust for many years.
Strong NGO sector and civil society (even if under pressure).
Some institutional reforms have been carried out (in infrastructure, some regulatory oversight, etc.).

These successes show that Bangladesh has the capacity. The problem is that many are fragile gains, vulnerable to reversal if structural issues aren’t addressed.

Conclusion: Why These Crises “Every Few Years”

Putting it all together:

Structural vulnerabilities (narrow export base, environmental exposures, weak revenue mobilisation) mean that the country is sensitive to shocks.
Institutional weaknesses (judiciary, oversight, electoral rule ambiguities, accountability) mean that when something goes wrong, there is no robust “pressure valve” or impartial mechanism to resolve issues.
Political polarisation means that competition is zero-sum: when one side is weak or feels cheated, protests or boycotts are an option; power transitions are often contested.
Cycles of unmet expectations and rising living costs ensure that dissatisfaction builds. Youth expect upward mobility; inflation or unemployment frustrates that.

Because of these, crises are not just one-off—they are recurring. Unless deeper reforms (both structural and economic, as well as political and democratic) are implemented, and unless institutions are strengthened, Bangladesh will likely continue to face periodic faltering.